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Polls offer a different picture of Oklahoma's race for Governor

Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (left) and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (right) are vying to take Oklahoma's highest office in November.
Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (left) and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (right) are vying to take Oklahoma's highest office in November.

With Oklahoma’s election for governor a month away, polls are showing varying pictures of what the results could be.

One internal poll shows a comfortable lead for incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt. Another, shows an edge for his Democratic challenger, Joy Hofmeister. And a third nonpartisan poll shows a lead for Hofmeister as well.

Stitt’s internal poll paints an incredibly rosy picture of the race for the Republican governor.

According to a memo authored by market researcher WPA Intelligence and released by Stitt’s campaign, he’s in the driver’s seat with a 15-point lead and poised to be “the first candidate for governor since 1982 to carry all 77 counties,” according to “analytics built custom for the campaign.”

Another measurement by nonpartisan pollster Sooner Poll shows Hofmeister has a four-point edge.

That backs up a pair of earlier polling by Sooner Poll and Amber Integrated showing a tight race between the two candidates from the big parties.

On Sunday, Libertarian candidate for governor Natalie Bruno released her own internal polling data. That showed Hofmeister with a narrow one-point lead at about 40% to 39% for Stitt, while Bruno polled at just shy of 10% of voters overall.

Bruno said her results show, “if each of my supporters can talk to 3 people and get them to vote for me... I can win this thing.”

Regardless of all the polling data, Stitt continues to be heavily favored to win. According to a political forecast by fivethirtyeight, Stitt wins in the vast majority of scenarios. Ultimately, voters will decide the outcome on Nov. 8.

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Robby Korth joined KOSU as its news director in November 2022.
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